My prediction on the 83rd Annual Academy Awards

  Now the Academy awards ceremony is near again. Many people have made their predictions on the results that will be revealed on the next Sunday, February 27, and, as usual, they agrees on some categories while disagreeing on others. Although I did not watch all of the nominees, I saw all of the major contenders, so here is my prediction on the 83rd Annual Academy award.

 Don’t bet on me, by the way. After getting slapped by “Crash” in 2006(Am I only one who thinks it deserves Best Picture award besides Roger Ebert?), I checked every nominee and possibility as far as I could, but, like many of you, I have never guessed the result correctly yet. As a matter of fact, I submitted my prediction to Roger Ebert’s site, but I do not expect much – it was just for a fun, folks.

Best Motion Picture of the Year

127 Hours (2010): Christian Colson, Danny Boyle, John Smithson

Black Swan (2010): Mike Medavoy, Brian Oliver, Scott Franklin

The Fighter (2010): David Hoberman, Todd Lieberman, Mark Wahlberg

Inception (2010): Christopher Nolan, Emma Thomas

The Kids Are All Right (2010): Gary Gilbert, Jeffrey Levy-Hinte, Celine Rattray

The King’s Speech (2010): Iain Canning, Emile Sherman, Gareth Unwin

The Social network (2010): Scott Rudin, Dana Brunetti, Michael De Luca, Ceán Chaffin

Toy Story 3 (2010): Darla K. Anderson

True Grit (2010): Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, Scott Rudin

Winter’s Bone (2010): Anne Rosellini, Alix Madigan

 Let’s erase five nominees that did not get Best Director nomination: “127 Hours”, “Inception”, “The Kids Are All Right”, “Toy Story 3”, and “Winter’s Bone”. “The Fighter” has little chance for it is supporting actors’ movie. “Black Swan” will get Best Actress award as its sole reward. “True Grit” scored 10 nominations, but it is not nominated for Best Editing – not a good sign for its chance to win.

 So we have “The King’s Speech” and “The Social Network”. The latter is certainly the best film of 2010. Its electrifying drama fascinates us with how our society is being changed due to the human relationships adapted into the electronic communication network by the nerds like Mark Zuckerberg, who, ironically, does not understand much about the human relationships(Never mind about how real-life Zuckerberg is different from the movie’s version). Will this rapid change be good or bad for us? I am not sure, and neither are the writer Aaron Sorkin and the director David Fincher. At least, I know the Internet can make lots of difference in our world nowadays than before – as shown in Egypt.

 But I think Best Picture award will go to “The King’s Speech”. With the story about one historic figure who overcomes his disability with the help from others, you can say that this period drama is made for Academy Awards. And it is a very powerful movie that seems to touch many people’s heart in Hollywood; it won SAG, PGA, DGA. With this result, there is a little chance for upset by “The Social Network”.

Prediction : The King’s Speech

Preference : The Social Network

 

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

Javier Bardem for Biutiful (2010)

Jeff Bridges for True Grit (2010)

Jesse Eisenberg for The Social Network (2010)

Colin Firth for The King’s Speech (2010)

James Franco for 127 Hours (2010)

 Considering the performances themselves, this is a heavy competition. I have not seen “Bitiful” yet, but many agree that it has Bardem’s best performance – but it is clear that his nomination itself is the reward. Bridges has won the award in last year, so he also does not have much possibility. Both Eisenberg and Franco give terrific performances, but the time has come for Colin Firth, who gives a very moving performance as King George Ⅵ in “The King’s Speech”.

Prediction : Colin Firth

Preference : Colin Firth

 

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

Annette Bening for The Kids Are All Right (2010)

Nicole Kidman for Rabbit Hole (2010)

Jennifer Lawrence for Winter’s Bone (2010)

Natalie Portman for Black Swan (2010)

Michelle Williams for Blue Valentine (2010)

 This is another heavy competition – all actresses are very good in their respective movies. First, Kidman and Williams will be content with their nominations, and so does Lawrence. Maybe some voters think it is time to give Bening the award, but, Portman is overwhelmingly favored at present for her dynamic performance in “Black Swan”. And she has already won Golden Globe, SAG, BAFTA, and many critics award. If she beats Bening at the Independent Spirit Awards on next Saturday, there will be no more questions about her win.

Prediction : Natalie Portman

Preference : Natalie Portman

 

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

Christian Bale for The Fighter (2010)

John Hawkes for Winter’s Bone (2010)

Jeremy Renner for The Town (2010)

Mark Ruffalo for The Kids Are All Right (2010)

Geoffrey Rush for The King’s Speech (2010)

 With SAG and Golden Globe awards, I think Bale will win an award. As a character the movie should have focused on instead of its bland hero, he was fantastic. It is possible that Rush, who recently won BAFTA award for his witty performance, will make an upset due to the popularity of “The King’s Speech”. The other three nominees – Hawkes, Renner, and Ruffalo – will take a backseat. I’d like to see Hawkes to win for his nuanced performance as a criminal uncle capable of showing ruthlessness as well as compassion to his desperate niece in “Winter’s Bone”.

Prediction : Christian Bale

Preference : John Hawkes

 

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

Amy Adams for The Fighter (2010)

Helena Bonham Carter for The King’s Speech (2010)

Melissa Leo for The Fighter (2010)

Hailee Steinfeld for True Grit (2010)

Jacki Weaver for Animal Kingdom (2010)

 Like many times before, this category is quite unpredictable. It seems that Leo is the front runner with Golden Globe and SAG wins, but Steinfield is a strong competitor with her exceptional performance. Adams and Weaver have almost no chance in this race, and, in case of Carter, she might win the award considering her recent BAFTA win. I have stuck with Steinfeld since I watched “True Grit” – but I also want to recognize the chilling performance by Weaver, who plays a ruthless, manipulative matriarch in “Animal Kingdom”

Prediction : Melissa Leo

Preference : Hailee Steinfeld – or Jackie Weaver

 

Best Achievement in Directing

Darren Aronofsky for Black Swan (2010)

Ethan Coen, Joel Coen for True Grit (2010)

David Fincher for The Social Network (2010)

Tom Hooper for The King’s Speech (2010)

David O. Russell for The Fighter (2010)

 There is lots of chance that Hooper, who won DGA award, will win the award, but I will stick with Fincher, who made one of the best movies in his career. I am sure Academy members will recognize his achievement… about 55%.

Prediction : David Fincher

Preference : David Fincher

 

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen

Another Year (2010): Mike Leigh

The Fighter (2010): Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy, Eric Johnson, Keith Dorrington

Inception (2010): Christopher Nolan

The Kids Are All Right (2010): Lisa Cholodenko, Stuart Blumberg

The King’s Speech (2010): David Seidler

 Although it was not nominated for WGA awards, “The King’s Speech” is too popular to be defeated in this category. I have not watched “Another Year” yet, but I will go with “The King’s Speech”.

Prediction : The King’s Speech

Preference : The King’s Speech

 

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published

127 Hours (2010): Danny Boyle, Simon Beaufoy

The Social Network (2010): Aaron Sorkin

Toy Story 3 (2010): Michael Arndt, John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton, Lee Unkrich

True Grit (2010): Joel Coen, Ethan Coen

Winter’s Bone (2010): Debra Granik, Anne Rosellini

 Yes, we are very, very sure that “The Social Network” will get at least one award and that will be from this category.

Prediction : The Social Network

Preference : The Social Network

 

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year

How to Train Your Dragon (2010): Dean DeBlois, Chris Sanders

The Illusionist (2010): Sylvain Chomet

Toy Story 3 (2010): Lee Unkrich

 Here is another sure bet – “Toy Story 3”. My preference is biased because I have not seen “The Illusionist” yet, by the way.

Prediction : Toy Story 3

Preference : Toy Story 3

 

 

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year

Biutiful (2010): Alejandro González Iñárritu(Mexico)

Dogtooth (2009): Giorgos Lanthimos(Greece)

In a Better World (2010): Susanne Bier(Denmark)

Incendies (2010): Denis Villeneuve(Canada)

Outside the Law(2010): Rachid Bouchareb(Algeria)

 I only watched “Dogtooth”, so I know it will have a very little chance for it is too cold and bizarre for the Academy voter’s taste. Considering the trend shown in recent winners, I predict “Incendies” will win the award.

Prediction : Incendies

 

Best Achievement in Cinematography

Black Swan (2010): Matthew Libatique

Inception (2010): Wally Pfister

The King’s Speech (2010): Danny Cohen

The Social Network (2010): Jeff Cronenweth

True Grit (2010): Roger Deakins

I think the time has come for Roger Deakins, who is now a 9-time nominee without a win. Plus, “True Grit” is a well-made, good-looking western film – which increases the chance for his win a lot.

Prediction : True Grit

Preference : True Grit

 

Best Achievement in Editing

127 Hours (2010): Jon Harris

Black Swan (2010): Andrew Weisblum

The Fighter (2010): Pamela Martin

The King’s Speech (2010): Tariq Anwar

The Social Network (2010): Kirk Baxter, Angus Wall

 With the absence of “Inception”, it is quite clear that who will win.

Prediction : The Social Network

Preference : The Social Network

 

 

Best Achievement in Art Direction

Alice in Wonderland (2010): Robert Stromberg, Karen O’Hara

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1 (2010): Stuart Craig, Stephenie McMillan

Inception (2010): Guy Hendrix Dyas, Larry Dias, Douglas A. Mowat

The King’s Speech (2010): Eve Stewart, Judy Farr

True Grit (2010): Jess Gonchor, Nancy Haigh

 Tim Burton’s movie has lots of chance because of its beautiful fantasy world, but “The King’s Speech” might win the award.

Prediction : Alice in Wonderland

Preference : Alice in Wonderland

 

 

Best Achievement in Costume Design

Alice in Wonderland (2010): Colleen Atwood

I Am Love (2009): Antonella Cannarozzi

The King’s Speech (2010): Jenny Beavan

The Tempest (2010/II): Sandy Powell

True Grit (2010): Mary Zophres

Which has the most colorful, the prettiest costumes?

Prediction : Alice in Wonderland

Preference : I Am Love

 

Best Achievement in Makeup

Barney’s Version (2010): Adrien Morot

The Way Back (2010): Edouard F. Henriques, Greg Funk, Yolanda Toussieng

The Wolfman (2010): Rick Baker, Dave Elsey

 I only watched “Wolfman”, but it seems “Barney’s Version” will win the award. I think it has advantages due to its more favorable reviews compared to others.

 Prediction: Barney’s Version

 

 

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score

127 Hours (2010): A.R. Rahman

How to Train Your Dragon (2010): John Powell

Inception (2010): Hans Zimmer

The King’s Speech (2010): Alexandre Desplat

The Social Network (2010): Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross

 Alexandre Desplat has been nominated in three consecutive years, and he is now at the height of his career. I think he will win the award, although I think John Powell’s work is the best among the nominees.

Prediction : The King’s Speech

Preference : How to Train Your Dragon

 

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song

127 Hours (2010): A.R. Rahman, , Dido(“If I Rise”)

Country Strong (2010): Tom Douglas, Hillary Lindsey, Troy Verges(“Coming Home”)

Tangled (2010): Alan Menken, Glenn Slater(“I See the Light”)

Toy Story 3 (2010): Randy Newman(“We Belong Together”)

There is no heavy favorite among these nominees. I will go with “127 Hours”.

Prediction : 127 Hours

Preference : I don’t care.

 

Best Achievement in Sound Mixing

Inception (2010): Lora Hirschberg, Gary Rizzo, Ed Novick

The King’s Speech (2010): Paul Hamblin, Martin Jensen, John Midgley

Salt (2010): Jeffrey J. Haboush, William Sarokin, Scott Millan, Greg P. Russell

The Social Network (2010): Ren Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick, Mark Weingarten

True Grit (2010): Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey, Greg Orloff, Peter F. Kurland

 It has to be loud, and, above all, it has to be a critically acclaimed movie.

Prediction : Inception

Preference : The Social Network

 

 

Best Achievement in Sound Editing

Inception (2010): Richard King

Toy Story 3 (2010): Tom Myers, Michael Silvers

TRON: Legacy (2010): Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Addison Teague

True Grit (2010): Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey

Unstoppable (2010): Mark P. Stoeckinger

 Again, no question about who will win – but I will be very glad if they give this award or sound mixing award to Skip Lievsay.

Prediction : Inception

Preference : Inception

 

Best Achievement in Visual Effects

Alice in Wonderland (2010): Ken Ralston, David Schaub, Carey Villegas, Sean Phillips

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1 (2010): Tim Burke, John Richardson, Christian Manz, Nicolas Aithadi

Hereafter (2010): Michael Owens, Bryan Grill, Stephan Trojansky, Joe Farrell

Inception (2010): Chris Corbould, Andrew Lockley, Pete Bebb, Paul J. Franklin

Iron Man 2 (2010): Janek Sirrs, Ben Snow, Ged Wright, Daniel Sudick

 No matter what happens, “Inception” will win this award for its dazzling visuals.

Prediction : Inception

Preference : Inception

 

Best Documentary, Features

Exit Through the Gift Shop (2010): Banksy, Jaimie D’Cruz

GasLand (2010): Josh Fox, Trish Adlesic

Inside Job (2010): Charles Ferguson, Audrey Marrs

Restrepo (2010): Tim Hetherington, Sebastian Junger

Waste Land (2010): Lucy Walker, Angus Aynsley

 I saw three movies: “Exit Through the Gift Shop”, “GasLand”, and “Restrepo”. But, although I have not seen it yet, I think “Inside Job” will win.

Prediction : Inside Job

 

 

Best Documentary, Short Subjects

Killing in the Name (2010): Jed Rothstein

Poster Girl (2010): Sara Nesson, Mitchell Block

Strangers No More (2010): Karen Goodman, Kirk Simon

Sun Come Up (2010): Jennifer Redfearn, Tim Metzger

The Warriors of Qiugang (2010): Ruby Yang, Thomas Lennon

 I will go with the Grand Poobah’s prediction

Prediction : Killing in the Name

 

 

Best Short Film, Animated

Day & Night (2010): Teddy Newton

The Gruffalo (2009) (TV): Jakob Schuh, Max Lang

Let’s Pollute (2011): Geefwee Boedoe

The Lost Thing (2010): Shaun Tan, Andrew Ruhemann

Madagascar, carnet de voyage (2010): Bastien Dubois

 “Day & Night” seems to be the most popular compared to other nominees.

 Prediction : Day & Night

 

 

Best Short Film, Live Action

The Confession (2010/IV): Tanel Toom

The Crush (2010): Michael Creagh

God of Love (2010): Luke Matheny

Na Wewe (2010): Ivan Goldschmidt

Wish 143 (2009): Ian Barnes, Samantha Waite

I will go with the Grand Poobah’s prediction, again.

Prediction : Na Wewe